GLOBAL OUTLOOK Q4 2019: Hey， where’s my yield？

　　This Q4 2019 edition of the BNP Paribas Global Outlook examines a market environment in which global growth continues to slow. We also consider how policymakers might respond as central banks in developed markets run out of ammunition and yields all but disaPPear. In short…what’s next？

　　法国巴黎银行全球展望的Q42019年版检验了一个市场全球增长继续放缓的环境。我们也考虑如何政策制定者可能会回应，因为发达市场的中央银行用完了弹药但增长几乎消失。简而言之......下一步是什么？

　　Trade tensions continue to weigh. We still think an escalation in the US–China trade tensions is more likely than a resolution， and expect this to weigh on global growth. While recent rhetoric has suggested more positive US–EU trade relations and the potential avoidance of the auto tariffs that are a key downside risk for the eurozone， we would not be too optimistic at this early stage.

　　贸易紧张局势继续加剧。我们仍然认为美中贸易有所升级紧张局势比解决方案更有可能，并期望这会对全球经济增长造成压力。而最近的言论表明美欧贸易关系更加积极，潜力巨大避免作为欧元区关键下行风险的汽车关税，我们不会这样做在这个早期阶段太乐观了。

　　Our DM and EM growth forecasts remain below consensus， even though consensus has come down significantly this year. We forecast global growth to slow further below 3% in 2020. Countries more reliant on exports such as China， Germany and some emerging markets could be particularly hard-hit， and the eurozone is on the brink of recession. Brexit remains an area of uncertainty， with asymmetric risks to the downside.

　　我们的DM和EM增长预测仍然低于市场预期，尽管已达成今年大幅下降的共识。我们预计全球经济增速2020将进一步放缓至3%以下.各国更依赖出口，如中国，德国和一些新兴国家市场可能受到特别严重打击，欧元区正处于经济衰退的边缘。Brexit仍然是一个不确定的领域，下行风险不对称。

　　Rates to stay low or go lower. As a result， we expect global rates to drop or remain close to current lows. As developed economies face the prospect of ‘Japanisation’， we expect central banks to react with more easing: a package announcement including rate cuts （with tiering） and QE from the ECB， four more rate cuts by the Fed by mid-2020 and rate cuts by the majority of EM central banks.

　　利率会保持低位并更低。因此，我们预计全球利率将下降或保持接近目前的低点。我们预计，随着发达经济体面临“日本化”的前景央行将采取更多宽松政策：包括降息在内的一揽子公告（包括降息）欧洲央行和欧洲央行的量化宽松政策，美联储在2020年中期再降息4次以及大多数新兴市场中央银行降息。

　　We see fledgling moves towards fiscal expansion. Policymakers seem to acknowledge that developed markets have reached the limits of monetary policy， and fiscal policy is starting to appear on the agenda. In our view， this will become more of a story in 2020 and implementation will take time， but we expect the idea to take root this year as exceptionally low funding costs make it increasingly attractive.

　　我们看到了财政扩张的新举措。政策制定者似乎承认发达市场已达到货币政策的极限，财政政策也是如此开始出现在议程上。在我们看来，这将成为2020年和更多的故事，实施需要时间，但我们希望这个想法能够在今年扎根

　　资金成本低，使其越来越有吸引力。

　　We are positive on bonds， cautious on equities. We are positive on bond markets in general and peripheral spreads in particular. We also like IG credit in the US and Europe， and EM spreads at the long end of the curve （mainly in Mexico， Brazil， Russia， Hungary and Poland）. We are defensive on equities， where negative earnings revisions are not fully priced in， in our view. In FX， we think the USD will stabilise and remain structurally bullish on the JPY. This outlook includes brand new Sustainability pages， while forthcoming spin-off publications will contain more in-depth analysis and top trade ideas for each of our usual asset classes. We hope you will find them useful and wish you the best for the rest of what has already been an eventful year.

　　我们对债券持积极态度，对股票持谨慎态度。我们对债券市场持积极态度

　　特别是一般和外围利差。我们也喜欢美国和欧洲的IG信用，和新兴市场在曲线的长端传播（主要在墨西哥，巴西，俄罗斯，匈牙利和印度）波兰）。我们对股票采取防御措施，其中负盈利修正未完全定价，在我们看来。在外汇市场，我们认为美元将稳定并在结构上看涨日元。

　　这一展望包括全新的可持续发展页面，以及即将发布的衍生出版物将为我们的每个常见资产类别包含更深入的分析和最重要的交易思路。我们希望您会发现它们很有用，并祝愿您已经完成其余的工作这是一个多事之秋。